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Hadhramaut Reshapes Yemen’s Political Map: The End of the Southern State Dream

By: Lawyer Saleh Abdullah Bahetili  Al-Numani

 

In recent years, Yemen’s political landscape has undergone profound shifts in priorities among the country's political forces. At the heart of these changes, the issue of Hadhramaut has emerged as a strategic game-changer that has reordered the entire political scene—not only in the south, but across the Republic of Yemen as a whole.

While certain southern factions—chief among them the Southern Transitional Council (STC)—were focused on imposing the project of an “independent southern state” from the base of Aden, Hadhramaut was moving in a completely different direction. Its focus has been on achieving autonomous governance, with advanced aspirations toward the right to self-determination. It has become increasingly clear that the Hadhrami movement, backed by a distinct cultural heritage and independent identity, is the most cohesive, organized, and closest to realizing concrete political gains on the ground.

In this context, it has become evident that Hadhramaut, with its strategic geographic position, natural resources, and relatively stable social fabric, is currently the only viable candidate for establishing a structured and stable political entity. On the other hand, the STC’s influence has been diminishing—not only due to its failure to meet southern aspirations but also due to widespread corruption within its institutions and internal fragmentation, which has led to significant defections of key leadership figures.

The political and media counterattacks launched by the STC against the Hadhrami movement were insufficient to halt its growing momentum. On the contrary, they only strengthened its cohesion and popularity. A powerful—almost legendary—Hadhrami will has emerged to break free from southern subordination and to assert Hadhramaut’s uniqueness as a region with its own history, identity, and demands that diverge from the STC’s broader narrative.

It is now clear that the southern statehood project is undergoing internal disintegration, with the STC rapidly losing popular legitimacy, particularly in southern governorates dissatisfied with its performance. Meanwhile, Hadhramaut moves closer to realizing its independent political project, with its sights firmly set on self-determination.

Given the sum of these developments, it is fair to say that Hadhramaut is no longer a marginal province on the fringes of the Yemeni scene—it has become a central player that has reset the political compass toward a more balanced and realistic course. It has evolved into the new axis of political equilibrium, one that cannot be ignored in any future settlement. Without Hadhramaut’s participation, the viability of a southern state project diminishes significantly. The STC may find itself with no option but to accept a federal arrangement within a unified Yemen—a scenario it once viewed as a retreat from its goals.

Ultimately, Hadhramaut has transcended its geographical identity. Today, it stands as the intellectual and political core of change in Yemen. It has asserted its presence as a soft power, with an inclusive national discourse and civic demands that embody the essence of a modern state. For these reasons, Hadhramaut is now the cornerstone of any stable and inclusive political future for the country.